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␈↓ ↓H␈↓¬␈↓ α≡OFFICE MEMORANDUM  *  STANFORD UNIVERSITY  *  OFFICE MEMORANDUM

␈↓ ↓H␈↓ε␈↓ ∧&DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE

␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ¬rJune 29, 1980




␈↓ ↓H␈↓αTo:␈↓ αH␈↓Prof. J.L. Sweeney

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓αFrom:␈↓ αH␈↓John McCarthy, Professor of Computer Science

␈↓ ↓H␈↓αSubject:␈↓ αH␈↓Your paper

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        Thanks␈αfor␈αyour␈α␈↓↓Energy␈αPolicy␈αIssues␈αfor␈α
the␈αEighties␈↓␈αwith␈αwhich␈αI␈αmainly␈αagree␈αexcept␈α
for
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the following:

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        1.␈α∞We␈α∞need␈α∂to␈α∞deal␈α∞more␈α∞realistically␈α∂with␈α∞non-economic␈α∞obstacles␈α∞to␈α∂energy␈α∞development.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Consider␈α
oil␈α∞shale.␈α
 Freeing␈α∞prices␈α
would␈α∞cause␈α
oil␈α∞shale␈α
to␈α∞be␈α
produced␈α∞in␈α
whatever␈α∞amount␈α
is
␈↓ ↓H␈↓economical␈α
in␈αthe␈α
America␈αof␈α
the␈α1950s␈α
or␈αearlier.␈α
 Just␈αfreeing␈α
the␈αmarket␈α
today␈αmight␈α
lead␈αto␈α
no
␈↓ ↓H␈↓shale␈α
oil␈α
being␈α
produced␈α∞-␈α
unless␈α
the␈α
market␈α
freedom␈α∞included␈α
that␈α
of␈α
bribing␈α
the␈α∞Governor␈α
of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Colorado␈αand␈α
enough␈αlegislators.␈α Someone␈α
must␈αtell␈α
Governor␈αLamm,␈α"The␈α
amount␈αis␈α
4␈αmillion
␈↓ ↓H␈↓barrels per day, and the time is as soon as possible".

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        This␈αcan␈αbe␈α
reconciled␈αwith␈αthe␈α
desire␈αto␈αlet␈αmarket␈α
forces␈αdetermine␈αprices␈α
and␈αquantities
␈↓ ↓H␈↓only␈αby␈αrelieving␈αnon-economic␈αconstraints␈αto␈αan␈αextent␈αthat␈αmuch␈αmore␈αthan␈αthe␈αrequired␈αsupply
␈↓ ↓H␈↓of␈αenergy␈α
could␈αbe␈α
produced␈αby␈α
all␈αsources␈αtaken␈α
together.␈α Then␈α
some␈αwill␈α
produce␈αless␈αthan␈α
they
␈↓ ↓H␈↓are allowed to.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        2.␈αYou␈αsay,␈α␈↓↓"However,␈αthe␈αU.S.␈αpolitical␈αsystem␈αdoes␈αnot␈αseem␈αto␈αdeal␈αe≥ectively␈αwith␈αtradeo≥s
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓involving␈α∪increased␈α∪costs␈α∪borne␈α∀now␈α∪in␈α∪order␈α∪to␈α∀avoid␈α∪uncertain,␈α∪although␈α∪large,␈α∀costs␈α∪several
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓Congressional␈αelections␈α
in␈αthe␈α
future"␈↓.␈α No␈α
doubt␈αthere␈αis␈α
an␈αe≥ect␈α
of␈αthis␈α
kind.␈α However,␈αmany␈α
of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓our␈α⊂troubles␈α⊂can␈α⊂almost␈α∂be␈α⊂described␈α⊂as␈α⊂the␈α⊂reverse.␈α∂ The␈α⊂fears␈α⊂about␈α⊂nuclear␈α⊂energy␈α∂involve
␈↓ ↓H␈↓letting␈α
hypothetical␈α
risks␈α
cause␈α
foregoing␈α
present␈α∞bene≡ts␈α
and␈α
so␈α
do␈α
other␈α
panics␈α
about␈α∞the␈α
long
␈↓ ↓H␈↓term future.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        I␈α
think␈α
that␈α
understanding␈αthe␈α
political␈α
di≠culties␈α
in␈αsolving␈α
our␈α
energy␈α
problems␈αcannot␈α
be
␈↓ ↓H␈↓achieved␈α⊃without␈α⊃detailed␈α∩analysis␈α⊃of␈α⊃the␈α∩interaction␈α⊃of␈α⊃ideologies␈α∩with␈α⊃each␈α⊃other␈α∩and␈α⊃with
␈↓ ↓H␈↓politics␈α⊗(regarded␈α∃as␈α⊗the␈α∃art␈α⊗of␈α∃getting␈α⊗and␈α∃keeping␈α⊗political␈α∃power).␈α⊗ The␈α∃environmental
␈↓ ↓H␈↓movement␈α
must␈α
be␈α
studied␈α
in␈α
its␈α
recruitment,␈α∞claims␈α
on␈α
power,␈α
as␈α
a␈α
vehicle␈α
for␈α∞advancement␈α
of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈α∩"new␈α∩class",␈α∩etc.␈α∩ I␈α∩don't␈α∩have␈α∩an␈α∩analysis␈α∩with␈α∩which␈α∩I␈α∩am␈α∩satis≡ed,␈α∩but␈α∩I␈α∩don't␈α∩think
␈↓ ↓H␈↓understanding can be achieved without it.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        I␈α∀also␈α∀don't␈α∀agree␈α∪with␈α∀Chauncey␈α∀Starr's␈α∀analysis␈α∪which␈α∀attempts␈α∀to␈α∀account␈α∀for␈α∪the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓opposition␈α∂to␈α∂nuclear␈α∂power␈α∂by␈α∂hypothesizing␈α∂that␈α∂the␈α∂public␈α∂just␈α∂naturally␈α⊂evaluates␈α∂di≥erent
␈↓ ↓H␈↓kinds of risk di≥erently.